GLOBAL AI INFRASTRUCTURE OBSERVATORY / AUG 2026

The race to
build intelligence.

A source-led view of compute capital, public programs and the model ecosystems turning infrastructure into capability.

Explore capital signals DOWNAudit the evidence
Selected 2026 hyperscaler capexMODELED PULSE
$0.00B

Year-to-date pacing of four disclosed company envelopes

2026 guidance midpoint$695B
Modeled each second$22,038
Amazon + Microsoft + Alphabet + Meta / not AI-only / 00:00:00 local
01$500B 2024 global data-centre investment
02$695B 2026 Big Four capex midpoint
03EUR 200B EU InvestAI target
04RMB 380B Alibaba 3-year plan

01 / CAPITAL FLOWS

Measure first.
Compare carefully.

The IEA reports $500B of global data-centre investment in 2024. Its regional electricity-use shares provide a physical footprint baseline, not a claim that spending follows the same percentages.

01

United States

45%

Share of global data-centre electricity use (IEA, 2024)

02

China

25%

Share of global data-centre electricity use (IEA, 2024)

03

Europe

15%

Share of global data-centre electricity use (IEA, 2024)

04

Rest of world

15%

Residual global share (IEA, 2024)

$500B2024 investment baseline
US45%
CN25%
EU15%
ROW15%

2026 CORPORATE GUIDANCE

Four capex envelopes, $695B at midpoint

These are company-wide envelopes by US-headquartered sponsors with global assets. They are strong signals of AI infrastructure demand, but they are not a geographic US spending total and not purely AI.

Amazon$200B

AI, chips, robotics and satellites

PRIMARY SOURCEMicrosoft$190B

Calendar-year capex expectation

PRIMARY SOURCEAlphabet$175-185B

Mostly technical infrastructure

PRIMARY SOURCEMeta$115-135B

AI efforts and core business

PRIMARY SOURCE
Published amountEUR 200M
Status / horizonFully funded
Groningen AI Factory; government, region and EuroHPCOPEN SOURCE

02 / INTELLIGENCE LAYER

Models became systems.
Systems became agents.

Select any node for an evidence-aware profile and official product link. "Open weights" is used deliberately: downloadable weights do not always mean OSI open source.

FOUNDATION MODELAGENTIC SYSTEM
PROPRIETARYOPEN ECOSYSTEM
Closed/API Open weights Agent/framework
ClosedUS

GPT

Reasoning, multimodal work and tools

Hosted API / productOpenAI / OPEN
ClosedUS

Claude

Reasoning, coding and long context

Hosted API / productAnthropic / OPEN
ClosedUS

Gemini

Multimodal reasoning and action

Hosted API / productGoogle DeepMind / OPEN
ClosedUS

Grok

Reasoning and real-time information

Hosted API / productxAI / OPEN
Open weightsUS

Llama

General foundation models

Weights / custom licenseMeta / OPEN
Open weightsUS

Gemma

Efficient local and edge AI

Weights / Gemma termsGoogle DeepMind / OPEN
Open weightsChina

Qwen

Multilingual, coding and reasoning

Weights + hosted APIAlibaba / OPEN
Open weightsChina

DeepSeek

Reasoning and efficient training

Weights + hosted APIDeepSeek / OPEN
Open weightsEurope

Mistral

Efficient multilingual models

Weights + hosted APIMistral AI / OPEN
Open weightsChina

Kimi

Long context and agentic tasks

Weights + hosted productMoonshot AI / OPEN
AgentUS

Codex

Software engineering

Hosted agentOpenAI / OPEN
AgentUS

Claude Code

Terminal-based software engineering

Hosted agent / CLIAnthropic / OPEN
AgentUS

Gemini CLI

Open developer workflow

Open-source clientGoogle / OPEN
AgentUS

Devin

Autonomous coding

Hosted agentCognition / OPEN
AgentAsia

Manus

General computer tasks

Hosted agentManus / OPEN
AgentUS

LangGraph

Agent orchestration

Open-source frameworkLangChain / OPEN

03 / EVIDENCE LEDGER

Every number keeps
its original meaning.

Reported investment, company guidance, public programs and aspirational commitments are different grains. The ledger preserves those categories, original currencies, periods and caveats.

1

Prefer primary

Investor relations, filings, governments and intergovernmental research.

2

Keep the grain

Do not silently turn a multi-year target into cash already spent.

3

Flag overlap

InvestAI gigafactories and Stargate suppliers can sit inside larger totals.

4

Show uncertainty

Ranges, scope limits and non-AI capex stay visible to the reader.

Data-quality finding

No audited global AI-infrastructure ledger exists. The strongest worldwide anchor found is the IEA's $500B estimate for all data-centre investment in 2024. The $695B live pulse is a separate midpoint of four 2026 company-wide capex guides; it must not be read as global AI spend.

Region / sourceMetricType / periodQuality note
GlobalGlobal data-centre investment
$500B
Reported2024

IEA baseline covers all data centres, not AI alone.High confidence / OPEN

US sponsorAmazon capex guidance
$200B
Guidance2026

Includes AI, chips, robotics and low-earth-orbit satellites.High confidence / OPEN

US sponsorMicrosoft capex expectation
$190B
GuidanceCY 2026

Company-wide capex; substantial cloud and AI infrastructure component.High confidence / OPEN

US sponsorAlphabet capex guidance
$175-185B
Guidance2026

Mostly technical infrastructure; not exclusively AI.High confidence / OPEN

US sponsorMeta capex guidance
$115-135B
Guidance2026

Supports AI efforts and core business.High confidence / OPEN

United StatesStargate
$500B
Commitment2025-2029

Multi-party target; overlaps with suppliers and is not cash already spent.Medium confidence / OPEN

European UnionInvestAI
EUR 200B
CommitmentMulti-year

Mobilization target; EUR 20B gigafactory facility is a subset, not additive.Medium confidence / OPEN

FranceAI summit announcements
EUR 109B
CommitmentMulti-year

Private announcements in France; execution schedules vary.Medium confidence / OPEN

China sponsorAlibaba AI + cloud plan
RMB 380B
CommitmentThree years

One company's plan; not a national China total.High confidence / OPEN

NetherlandsGroningen AI Factory
EUR 200M
Public programTo 2027

EUR 70M national, EUR 60M regional and EUR 70M EuroHPC funding.High confidence / OPEN

CanadaSovereign AI Compute Strategy
CAD 2B
Public programMulti-year

Public compute strategy, including a CAD 700M compute challenge.High confidence / OPEN

United KingdomAI Research Resource expansion
GBP 1B
Public programTo 2030

Public compute expansion; separate from private data-centre investment.High confidence / OPEN

RESEARCH CUT-OFF2 August 2026

Figures should be re-reviewed after each reporting cycle. This edition does not automatically ingest new disclosures.